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Author: Paul Campbell

Earning the Vezina 2018, Part 2: Advanced stats and the rightful winner

In Part 1, we revealed who will win the Vezina award for 2018. No one can predict the working of 31 general managers’ minds with certainty, of course, but based on historic voting patterns, Pekka Rinne is very likely to win this year. Unless. Unless a specialist goaltending magazine could make a thoroughly convincing case for a different candidate. An indisputable case. A case so powerful it somehow compelled every GM to read it, and possibly even rewrote parts of their cortexes. What follows here in Part 2 is that very Inception. A Rationale for Deeper Statistical Analysis No...

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Earning the Vezina 2018, Part 1: Who’s Going to Win (but maybe shouldn’t)

Every other list of Vezina (top goaltender) finalists is fatally flawed because they unwittingly conflate 2 distinct kinds of evaluation: who is likely to win based on common voting patterns, versus who should win based on superior goaltending. The difference between the two arises from a discrepancy between what the voters (general managers) see and value in goaltending performance, and what the growing depth of statistical information can tell us about the same. Part one of this series examines (with reference to previous in-depth InGoal research) who the general managers are most likely to choose based on their historical biases...

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Three-frame Breakdown: Nilsson’s Tricky Stick Predicament

The LA Kings score their second goal of the night against Vancouver’s Anders Nilsson on a pinpoint-precise pass from behind the net. It threads the needle between the defender’s blade and the goaltender’s:   There’s not much a goalie can do once the pass gets though. However, did Nilsson make the best decision on the pass itself? He plays it conservatively, stick positioned to most efficiently defend against the shot should the pass get through. But what if he had turned the blade over, actively trying to impede the pass?   In this case, turning the blade...

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Three-frame Breakdown: Andersen’s Late Screen

Frederik Andersen was given a pass by most analysts for the first goal he allowed tonight, due to the screen: This wasn’t a straightforward save, certainly, but Andersen had a better chance at stopping this than a quick look might lead you to believe. Why? Andersen had eyes on the puck off the release. Andersen’s head tracks the presumed path of the puck as it slips behind the screen, but he does not move to compensate. The puck barely misses Andersen’s right pad. Had he adjusted sooner, he makes the save. See for yourself: Agree or disagree? Let...

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InGoal 2017-18 Preview: Atlantic Division

It’s another new NHL season – and for a number of teams across the league, there’s going to be a drastically new look in net. With the expansion draft sending one well-known starter out west – and a number of other teams doing the goalie shuffle as a result of the addition of Vegas to the league – it’s a lot to keep up with. InGoal has taken a deep dive into the in-net situations for all 31 (yes, there are now 31) teams around the league. From the starters to the minors, each and every franchise has been...

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