Advertisement

Select Page

InGoal Magazine’s 2017 Vezina Breakdown

InGoal Magazine’s 2017 Vezina Breakdown

Every year the hockey world loves to handicap the Vezina Trophy race. Who will win? Who should win? What factors should we pay attention to? We at InGoal Magazine are here to give you plenty of fodder for your debates over the next several weeks.

On the Stat Sheet

Statistically, the race is quite tight at the top between Sergei Bobrovsky and Braden Holtby. Both of these goalies are at or near the top of the NHL in most categories.

Perennial contender Carey Price has also put up some great numbers across the board, and deserves to remain in the conversation. Additionally, youngsters John Gibson and Matt Murray did themselves proud this season and should garner some votes.

There are some “rules” that the General Managers tend to follow when casting their votes for the Vezina. The winner will almost always have played most of their team’s games. They will have a winning record. And their team will be a playoff team.

In addition, the voters tend to put a good deal of emphasis on overall save percentage. There are, however, some other statistics that can help shed some light on performance.

The table below lists the top candidates and their performance in several important statistical categories. Wins, Overall save percentage, and Penalty Kill save percentage are from NHL.com. Other statistics are from Corsica.Hockey.

 

Statistically, the race is quite tight at the top between Sergei Bobrovsky and Braden Holtby. Both of these goalies are at or near the top of the NHL in most categories.

GoalieGPWinsSV%5v5 SV%AdjFSV%HDSV%PKSv%GSAA/Gm
S. Bobrovsky634193.193.871.9686.4389.1.511
B. Holtby624292.593.581.6682.1184.8.413
C. Price623792.393.591.2786.686.7.330
J. Gibson522592.493.481.2882.490.9.350
M. Murray493292.393.441.5983.2187.9.472

Advanced Goalie Stats 

Corsica carries a few newer stats that provide ways to look at goalie performance from a somewhat different angle. The site scores each shot (including missed shots) on its likelihood of going in across the league, based on location, shot type, and a few other factors. They categorize them into Low, Medium, and High Danger shots and can use that to compare workloads between goalies on different teams.

  • Adjusted Fenwick save percentage (AdjFSv%) is the difference between how a goalie performed and league average on their individual workload. It includes missed shots. Higher is better.
  • High Danger save percentage (HDSV%) is more likely to persist from season to season and is considered by many to be the more telling of the three.
  • Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) turns save percentage into a more concrete number representing value to the team. Here we’ve shown it on a per game basis.

 

 

A few Honorable Mentions:

Corey Crawford placed well in 5v5 save percentage (93.0) and HD save percentage (83.9), but less well in other areas.

Cam Talbot had 42 wins and did very well in advanced stats (1.38 Adjusted Fenwick Save Percentage and .383 GSAA/Gm), but was less than elite in most other categories.

Devan Dubnyk’s statistics took a nosedive over the last month or so. His 93.07 5v5 save percentage is still pretty good but is far from being the best in the league.

What It Means

The top three goalies statistically are clearly Bobrovsky, Holtby, and Price. There’s quite a bit of talk that Holtby could be a repeat winner, and his 42 wins may be enough to carry that off. Bobrovsky’s just that much better in every other category, however.

Carey Price’s lower win percentage is probably enough to lose him votes, but he’s frankly only behind Holtby by a whisker in most other categories. Gibson and Murray have no real shot at the award, not least because of their lower workloads, but their numbers are among the best in the league.

The top three goalies statistically are clearly Bobrovsky, Holtby, and Price. There’s quite a bit of talk that Holtby could be a repeat winner, and his 42 wins may be enough to carry that off.

What do you think, readers? Who will win and why?

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

InGoal Partners

Read InGoal Magazine