Is 2023 Vezina Trophy as Obvious as Ullmark?

On the surface, the answer to who should win the Vezina Trophy seems obvious.

Linus Ullmark had incredible breakout season with the Boston Bruins, leads the NHL in save percentage (.938) and goals-against average (1.89), and tied with Alexandar Georgiev of the Colorado Avalanche for the most wins (40) despite starting just 48 games, 14 fewer.

By all the traditional metrics, Ullmark is a slam dunk to be named the League’s top goalie and win his first Vezina. But what do the analytics say? Can we account for the fact Ullmark played behind a record-setting Bruins team when comparing his results to other goalies? Should the fact he played fewer than 50 games compared to 64 each for Juuse Saros with the Nashville Predators and Connor Hellebuyck with the Winnipeg Jets matter? How much?

InGoal Magazine turned to Clear Sight Analytics to help solve those first couple of questions, and hopefully shed some light on the last two as well. Before you dig into those statistics, check out our primer on how Clear Sight Analytics quantifies shot quality using 34 data points on every shot to add context that includes everything from shot location and type (off the rush or in-zone), to whether the goalie was forced to go side to side by a pre-shot pass, or if they had to find a puck through screens, whether cause by an opponent of their own team.

A Guide to the Data of Clear Sight Analytics (CSA)

As goalies we know not all shots are created equal. Trying to compare goalies playing behind different teams and systems is often apples to oranges, but Clear Sight Analytics helps level that playing field by quantifying the quality of the shots that each goalie faces.

Before we get to their numbers, though, take a look at the tradition statistics that used to be the default for the General Managers who vote on the Vezina Trophy: Wins and Save Percentage for goalies who have played at least 45-50 games.