Divining the Vezina: Reading GM’s Minds to Predict the Winner
Last time, we discussed who should win this year’s Vezina Trophy for best goaltender. Looking closely at the most advanced numbers, it was nearly a dead heat between Connor Hellebuyck and Jacob Markstrom, with Tuukka Rask coming in a close third.
Today, we’re not trying to determine who’s most deserving of the award. Instead, it’s our mission to predict who the NHL general managers who vote on the award will pick. This is a very different exercise, and relies more on psychology than advanced statistics. By studying previous voting patterns, we can see which factors weigh most heavily in a goaltender’s favour, and which win out when there’s a conflict between them.
Still ahead in this article:
The skeleton — a short list of criteria that actually predict the winner, ranked by how GMs weigh them against each other — is in the next paragraph.
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Join thousands of goalies, parents, and coaches who train smarter with InGoal.
15+ years of goaltending film & coaching
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