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Tristan Jarry in Pittsburgh Penguins gear squares up in butterfly stance; Edmonton Oilers goalie visible in background

Myth Busting

Kevin Woodley | | 5 min read
Key Takeaways
  • Jarry's .909 save percentage understates his value — his adjusted save percentage of +2.5% ranked 7th in the NHL among goalies with comparable workloads.
  • Skinner ranked 40th in adjusted save percentage (-0.4%) and 52nd in Goals Saved Above Expected (-1.82) at the time of the trade, a significant gap from Jarry's performance.
  • Skinner's numbers were trending upward sharply, ranking 27th in adjusted save percentage over the past month (+1.2%) and even better than Jarry since December 1 (+1.8%).
  • Raw save percentage alone is misleading — adjusted save percentage and Goals Saved Above Expected provide a clearer picture of goaltender performance.
  • Jarry's bounce-back season is statistically real, coming after he cleared waivers and spent time in the AHL the previous year.

The trade that sent Tristan Jarry to the Edmonton Oilers for a package that included Stuart Skinner going back to the Pittsburgh Penguins was not warmly received on Friday.

There was no shortage of criticism online (shocker) and several suggestions, some in the form of admittedly funny memes, the Oilers had acquired a goalie who was similar to the one they gave up on. Thankfully, here at InGoal Magazine we have access to Clear Sight Analytics to help cut through the noise and narratives and dig into whether or not there is a good statistical fit between Edmonton and Jarry, who played his junior hockey there.

Let’s start with the season Jarry was having in Pittsburgh.

Though it is an admittedly small sample since, Jarry’s season to date with the Penguins was even better than the raw numbers, including a .909 save percentage that ranked 16th in the NHL, might suggest. Jarry went into last night’s game against the Montreal Canadiens seventh in adjusted save percentage at +2.5%, behind only Ilya Sorokin and Logan Thompson among goalies who had faced at least as many chances as him.

(Now might be a good time to refresh your memory on Clear Sight Analytics numbers work)

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